Proyeksi Penduduk 2000-2025
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Jumlah penduduk hari ini  .:. Indonesia = 244,273,721 .:. Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam = 4,154,775 .:. Sumatera Utara = 13,758,382 .:. Sumatera Barat = 4,656,545 .:. Riau = 8,616,736 .:. Jambi = 3,104,161 .:. Sumatera Selatan = 7,714,810 .:. Bengkulu = 1,916,022 .:. Lampung = 8,250,767 .:. Kep. Bangka Belitung = 1,099,577 .:. DKI Jakarta = 9,129,943 .:. Jawa Barat = 45,229,490 .:. Jawa Tengah = 32,787,393 .:. DI Yogyakarta = 3,547,737 .:. Jawa Timur = 36,714,092 .:. Banten = 11,775,756 .:. Bali = 3,747,149 .:. Nusa Tenggara Barat = 4,959,889 .:. Nusa Tenggara Timur = 4,628,675 .:. Kalimantan Barat = 5,054,404 .:. Kalimantan Tengah = 2,680,212 .:. Kalimantan Selatan = 3,704,324 .:. Kalimantan Timur = 3,491,428 .:. Sulawesi Utara = 2,373,314 .:. Sulawesi Tengah = 2,825,269 .:. Sulawesi Selatan = 9,309,935 .:. Sulawesi Tenggara = 2,582,622 .:. Gorontalo = 930,040 .:. Maluku = 1,451,604 .:. Maluku Utara = 1,029,601 .:. Papua = 3,047,789
Home arrow 2. Methodology & Assumption
Wednesday, 23 April 2014
 
 
2.1 Projection Method PDF Print E-mail

2.1. Projection Method

Statistics Indonesia has made various scenarios of Indonesian population projection (2000-2025) starting with the smallest to the highest using the results of Population Census 2000. This projection is made using component method based on assumption on the tendency of fertility, mortality and population migration between provinces that will likely occur in the next 25 years. Population projections in urban areas are conducted using Urban Rural Growth Difference (URGD) method, using the difference between population growth in urban and rural areas. In the first stage, population projection for Indonesia is calculated then population for each province. If the population projection of each province is summed up, the results will not equal the population projection of Indonesia, therefore iteration is done to equalize the two, using the population projection of Indonesia as a reference. It is in the last stage that the population projection for urban areas is calculated. Afterwards the projection is discussed within a technical team that is formed by Statistics Indonesia, and it is discussed further in a team comprising of delegates from National Development Planning Board, National Family Planning Coordination Board (NFPCB), Ministry of Health, Statistics Indonesia and related institutions. In that meeting, other than technical discussion, it is also decided that for long term planning there needs to be a formal population projection that can be used as a reference for all government institutions in planning in their own areas.

Deciding on assumptions is the key to calculating population projection. Generally assumptions on the tendencies of fertility, mortality and migration rates is defined by the tendencies in the past paying attention to various factors that affect the three components of growth rate previously mentioned. But the information is far from adequate, since it needs to be completed with views from experts and decision makers that are visionary about demographic issues. Recommendations from those experts are vital for the team from Statistics Indonesia in making assumptions used in calculating projections.


 
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